With the mid-terms quickly approaching sports betting websites are throwing their hats in the ring and have put out odds to allow political observers from across the spectrum to place bets on everything from the House and Senate majorities to individual races. Here are some our best ideas for those looking to place wagers to make Tuesday night a bit more exciting.
Favorites
Braun - GOP v. Donnelly - DEM
RCP Race Status: Toss up
Latest Poll: Donnelly +7%
Odds: Braun -105 - Bovada
Our Pick: Braun
Donnelly looked to be in command of this race over summer but it has tightened significantly. Donnelly’s vote against Kavanaugh in a state where many undecided voters are likely Trump supporters has not helped and Braun has run a strong campaign. There is also a Libertarian candidate running in the state that is polling around the 7% mark, if a significant portion of those votes and the undecides break for Braun we should see the GOP pick up this seat.
Hawley - GOP v. McCaskill - DEM
RCP Race Status: Toss up
Latest Poll: Tie
Odds: Hawley -135 - Bovada
Our Pick: Hawley
This has been a close race for much of the fall but over the past week it looks like Hawley has the incumbent McCaskill back on her heels and is in the fight of her political life to win reelection. McCaskill was caught on tape being dismissive of the state’s rural voters and, in what appears to be a sign of desperation for a Democrat candidate, recently made an appearance on Fox News in an attempt to convince conservative voters she can work with the President. During the appearance she made some disparaging comments towards other Democrats that have hurt morale in the state’s progressive voting bloc and could possibly lead to lower turn out and a Hawley victory.
Other Senate Picks
McSally - GOP v. Sinema - DEM
RCP Race Status: Toss up
Latest Poll: Tie
Odds: McSally -125 - Bovada
Our Pick: McSally
Recently, some comments that Kyrsten Sinema made in the past have come to light where she endorsed allowing Americans to join the Taliban and made disparaging comments about Arizona voters including referring to the state as “the meth lab of democracy”. We feel that the damage from these remarks coming to light have not been fully picked up by the polls in a republican leaning state where she’s running against combat veteran Martha McSally. Although we feel McSally will likely win this race, changing demographics in Arizona, along with he rocky relationship to say the least between the President and Sentor’s McCain and Flake make this race less of a sure thing when compared to the two highlighted above.
Mispriced Odds
House of Representative
GOP v. DEM
RCP Race Status: DEM 203, GOP 195, 37 Toss up
Odds: Democrats -160 – MyBookie
Value: Democrats
Pollster Nate Silver’s 538 website currently places the Democrats odds to regain the House majority at over 80%, that probability would lead to implied odds of -400, however the Dems are only listed at -160 on MyBookie.com, a clear misprice given the probability. According to Real Clear Politics, the Democrats hold an eight-seat lead in current polling. Additionally, a large chunk of the toss up races are in Pennsylvania where Democrats recently redrew the map in their favor and in suburban districts that went for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election so the consensus belief is that the Democrats are likely to regain the seats they need to reach a majority.
If you are looking to hedge a bet on the Democrats or are bullish on the GOPs chances to hold the house the best odds can be found on Bovada.com at +180 for the Republicans
Upset Special
Rosendale - GOP v. Tester - DEM
RCP Race Status: Toss up
Latest Poll: Tester +3%
Odds: Rosendale +250 - Bovada
Our Pick: Rosendale
Tester has seen his lead shrink over the past few weeks in a state where Donald Trump won by 20% in 2016. We’ve heard discussions this week of the Libertarian candidate in the race suspending his campaign and endorsing Rosendale. If this scenario plays out a large percentage of the 3%-4% support the Libertarian is currently polling at will move over to Rosendale, further tightening the race. A weekend visit from Donald Trump to a state where his popularity is high may be enough to get out the vote and move Rosendale over the edge to secure an upset victory. The +250 payout does well to compensate for the risk involved with this pick.