After Xander Schauffele fired a blistering 11 under par 62 on Sunday to take down the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the PGA Tour hops over to Oahu from Maui for the first full-field, cut event of 2019. The host venue for this week’s Sony Open is the Waialae Country Club located just outside of Honolulu. A stark contrast from the hilly bombers track at Kapalua, Waialae Country Club is a Par 70 measuring in at 7,070 yards and located on a relatively flat piece of land between the Koolau mountain range on the north and Pacific Ocean on the south. The course only has two par 5’s, one of which is 506 yards and plays downwind where a par will lose .76 shots to the field. The tree-lined fairways at Waialae are difficult to hit and feature many doglegs that reward players that can work the ball both ways. Although Waialae is one of the most difficult driving courses on tour, the rough is not penal, offering players who miss a fairway the opportunity to still have a good shot at the green, absent any tree trouble. Both fairways and greens are Bermuda grass.
Last year Waialae played as the 39th easiest course on Tour so we should expect to see a lot of scoring this week with the winning score likely around 20 under par. In terms of stats, strokes gained putting has been a 40% contributor to the winning formula here compared to a 34% average for all tour venues. Although putting is a highly variable stat that I don’t look to target on a weekly basis, it is still something to consider. This is a second shot course, so the approach stats will be something to lean on heavily this week. It’s also worth noting that strokes gained around the green and strokes gained off the tee have held relatively little importance at Waialae over the past few years.
Here are our top stats to consider this week
- Strokes gained approach
- Proximity from 150-175
- Birdie or Better Rate
- Par 4 Efficiency
- Strokes Gained Putting: Bermuda
This year’s field at the Sony is one of the strongest in recent history featuring some big names in Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama mixed in with some up and coming players in good form like Cameron Champ. With this the first tournament of the year featuring a cut, I’ll be targeting players in good form that make sense from a stats prospective and who preferably have some good course history at Waialae. Here are three targets for your cash game / single entry tournament lineups on Draftkings this week:
High End – Justin Thomas - $11,400
JT won here two years ago after firing a 59 so we know he can go low here, and he brings the winning upside that we love to target in DFS golf. He also comes into the Sony in good form as he led the TOC in stokes gained approach. He struggled putting early in the week but showed some improvement going into the weekend. Typically, $11,400 is a bit higher than we like to pay in cash games, but with Vegas odds, current form, and course history pointing us in the direction of Thomas, it makes sense this week.
Mid-Range – Matt Kuchar - $8,500
Matt Kuchar won earlier this season at a Mayakoba course that shares a lot of similarities to Waialae. He was under the weather earlier last week but it seems like he recovered later in the week finishing up with two bogey free rounds at Kapalua where he missed several short birdie putts. If the ball striking continues and a few more putts fall, we could see some low scores out of Kuch this week.
Value – Ian Poulter - $7,800
Along the same lines as Kuchar, Ian Poulter is another player who is a solid ball striker but had a poor putting week at Kapalua. Normally he gains strokes putting on Bermuda so some regression to the mean will go a long way in contributing to a strong finish this week. He’s not a bomber but with strokes gained off the tee not a major factor at Waialae we should be able to bank on a made cut with upside for more this week which is what we are looking for at this lower price range.