It finally feels like we can say golf season has officially begun now that we’ve seen Tiger’s 2019 debut at a strong full-field Farmers Insurance Open. Justin Rose took hold of the lead on Friday afternoon and never looked back en route his first win as a Honma staff member, solidifying himself as the world’s top ranked golfer. This week, the Tour moves to Arizona for one of the most entertaining events on the schedule in the Waste Management Phoenix Open held at TPC Scottsdale. Players will have to manage raucous crowds, including 20,000 inebriated fans on the 16th hole waiting to boo any player that misses the green, at what will be the highest attended golf tournament of the year. We will be back to a single course for this week’s event and will have Shotlink data available on all four days. Here is a brief description of the course:
TPC Scottsdale: Par 71, 7,266 yards. In contrast to Torrey Pines, TPC Scottsdale annually ranks among one of the easier courses on Tour as it was the 32nd most difficult out of 51 courses played last year. This course shares some similarities with PGA West Stadium, that we saw two weeks ago, in that the greens are Bermuda overseeded with Bentgrass and we will see water in play on a majority of holes on the back nine. TPC Scottsdale also offers a reprieve from Torrey Pines by playing nearly 500 yards shorter as well as in its rough, that will be much shorter in length than players saw last week. Fairways here are about 5% more difficult to hit than average, with those who miss having to deal with average length Ryegrass rough that cedes to an area of dormant Bermuda rough in front of the native areas that border most holes. The highest weighted approach shot distribution is in the 150-175 yard range. Historically, players have hit greens here at an average rate while those who miss greens get up and down at higher than average rates. Most scoring will take place on TPC Scottsdale’s three par fives that see birdies or better at a clip of 40% or higher. The course is set up for an exciting finish as most spectators congregate around the last few holes. The 15th is a reachable par five to a island green, the 16th is a short par 3 that is the loudest hole in golf, hole 17 is a drivable par four that will can easily see players card anything from an eagle two to a bogey five, and the 18th is a strong finishing hole that rewards a drive that successfully challenges a large water hazard and church pew bunker complex with a relatively easy approach shot in the scoring zone.
Here are our top stats to consider this week:
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Opportunities Gained
- Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- Birdie or Better %
- Proximity from 150 to 175 yards
No Tiger Woods this week, however, we will still see a very strong field for this event headlined by former ASU golfers Jon Rahm and Phil Mickleson. Other notables in the field include Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, and defending champion Gary Woodland. We will see a smaller field this week with only 132 golfers competing with the top 70 and ties moving on to the weekend. With a higher percentage of players making the cut getting all six of your golfers through to the weekend gains added importance in DFS contests. This week I’ll be targeting players with strong approach games who have a history of giving themselves a high amount of birdie opportunities within 15 feet relative to the field. Winners at this event have averaged 1.7 strokes gained approach, more than twice than the next highest average strokes gained factor. Another factor to keep in mind that may go overlooked is that winners of this event have been strong drivers of the ball. Here are three targets for your cash game / single entry tournament lineups on DraftKings this week:
High End – Hideki Matsuyama – $10,700
After a strong third place performance at the Farmers where he gained 5.2 strokes on approach it appears Hideki’s game is beginning to round into form right in time an event he won in back to back years (2016-17) before withdrawing last year due to a wrist injury. The WD last year shouldn’t be used as a knock against his course history here as he was still able to card a round of two under par in the only day he competed. With his iron game heating he should see plenty of birdie chances this week and at $10,700 it makes sense to start with Hideki for a high floor with winning upside.
Value – Zach Johnson – $7,800
Anytime we get the chance to roster ZJ for less than $8,000 on a second shot course it warrants serious consideration. He missed the cut two starts ago at the Sony but bounced back with a 28th place finish at the Desert Classic that correlates well with the WMPO. In both starts he gained over two strokes on approaches. He is a great bet to make the cut as he has done so in all six of his prior starts that include four top 15 finishes.
Value – Emiliano Grillo – $7,600
Along the same line as ZJ above, Grillo brings a strong tee to green game to TPC Scottsdale gaining 3.4 strokes on approach last week at the Farmers and 5.4 strokes on approach at the Sony. He lost 5.4 strokes on and around the green last week that was the primary reason for a disappointing 52nd place finish so if he can improve with a flatstick a bit we could see a top 25 finish that would provide good value at his price.
How we did last week:
Article Plays:
Tony Finau – T13
Gary Woodland – T9
Joaquin Niemann – T72
Optimal Sports Subscribers Core Plays:
Patrick Cantlay – MC
Keith Mitchell - MC
Kyle Stanley – MC
Tony Finau – T13
Gary Woodland – T9
JJ Spaun – MC
Last Week’s DraftKings Double Up Contest Result: Loss
2018-2019 Season Double Up Record: 8-4
Record in Double Ups Since 1/1/18: 33-14
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