Matthew Wolff’s exciting win where we buried a long eagle putt on 18 to beat Bryson DeChambeau at the inaugural 3M Open over the long Fourth of July weekend along with the Open Championship only a week away leave the golf world in a bit of a lull as the PGA Tour finishes up the Midwest Swing at the John Deere Classic held at TPC Deere Run just outside of the Quad Cities.
TPC Deere Run: Par 71, 7,258 yards.
Average Driving Distance: (TPC Deere Run 284 vs. PGA Tour Avg 283 yards)
Hitting Fairways: Easy (TPC Deere Run 73% vs. PGA Tour Avg 61%). The rough is usually kept long but with how wide the fairways are, it is not expected to be a significant impact.
Hitting Greens: (TPC Deere Run 71% vs. PGA Tour Avg 66%)
After a couple weeks at new venues it’s great to get back to a familiar layout at TPC Deere Run. Like the past couple of weeks we should expect to see a good amount of scoring as the fairways are some of the most generous on the PGA Tour and the shorter layout allows both bombers and short hitters to place their tee shots into the scoring zone. The tournament can be characterized as a wedge contest with most approaches on par fours come from the 125-150 yard range. There are three par fives on the course, two of which are around 565 yards and should be reachable by nearly all of the field if they can find the fairway off the tee. We should be in store for some exciting golf down the stretch as the 14th is a short risk/reward par four with a tricky around the green area that is reachable by many in the field. Hole 17 is a par five that can be reached in two but players who attack the Sunday pin but fall short will face a short sided shot from a steep faced bunker in front of the green. The most difficult hole at TPC Deere Run is the par four 18th that plays about 0.2 strokes over par and forces players to safely land a mid-iron approach onto a green guarded by water on the left side and bunkers short and right.
Here are our top stats to consider this week:
Strokes Gained Approach
Birdies or Better Gained
Proximity 125-150 yards
Field Size: 156
Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties (MDF rule is in effect)
Notables in the Field: Zach Johnson, Matt Wolff, Charles Howell III, Ryan Moore
This is the weakest field we will likely see on a main DFS stale this season and we will not see anything approaching this level again until after the conclusion of the Fed-Ex Cup Playoffs. With this being the week before the Open Championship most players competing for the final major of the year are already in the U.K. preparing for the transition to links style golf. That leaves us with a field devoid of star power with no players in the top 50 in the OWGR’s teeing it up this week at the John Deere. Because of this, the highest priced players on the board this week are Viktor Hovland and Colin Morikawa up in the high $10K range as Draftkings still needs to fill up all the pricing tiers with what is available this week. This is another wide-open week where I will be significantly reducing the amount of bankroll in play for cash games but will still be playing close to normal GPP volume. Here are two targets to build around for your DraftKings cash game/single entry GPP lineups. Get our best plays to construct the remainder of your lineup by clicking the link at the bottom of the page.
High End – Joaquin Niemann – $10,200
Niemann offers a nice discount when compared to the salaries of the three other young guys at the top of the board. He is in just as good of form as the others and also has the experience of having played at TPC Deere Run last year. His irons have been sharp, and the putter has improved significantly which should bode well for him in an event where scoring is key.
Value – Peter Malnati – $7,900
Although he missed the cut her last year, Peter Malnati comes into this year’s edition of the John Deere in much better form having gained strokes on approach in each of his last six starts and finishing no worse than 46th place. His proximity numbers from inside 150 and strokes gained putting stats help him fit the profile needed for success at an event that basically comes down to being a wedge and putting contest
How we did last week:
Cash/Single Entry Article Plays:
Hideki Matsuyama – T7
Charley Hoffman – MC
Optimal Sports Subscribers Core Plays:
Charley Hoffman – MC
Viktor Hovland – T13
Sepp Straka – MC
Kevin Streelman – T34
Joaquin Niemann – T23
Sam Burns – T7
Last Week’s DraftKings Double Up Contest Result: Loss
2018-2019 Season Double Up Record: 21-13
Record in Double Ups Since 1/1/18: 46-23
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